Climate change anticipated to sharply increase cardiovascular deaths in China: Study

Climate change is a significant threat to human health. One way it can harm people is by increasing heat-related cardiovascular mortality. 

A recent China-based study published in the journal eBioMedicine examined how climate change could significantly affect cardiovascular disease-related death rates in China.

The Health Impacts of Global Temperature Rise

We can all feel that summer is getting hotter and staying unusually long. Global temperatures are rising, and this trend is expected to continue. Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, contribute to this warming. 

Climate change can negatively impact human health, including heat stress, extreme weather events, and the spread of diseases. We can all feel that allergy season is getting worse, which can be attributed to climate change.

But can climate change increase our chances of getting a heart attack?

The Disturbing Link Between Climate Change and Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. It includes conditions such as heart disease and stroke. Post-COVID-19, there is an increase in the incidence of heart attacks and related death. 

However, there is also a disturbing link between climate change and cardiovascular disease. A previous study revealed that exposure to heat stress increases the risk of heart disease. In the study published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health, the authors investigated the effects of heat stress on cardiovascular disease. 

They found that heat stress can cause various cardiovascular effects, including increases in blood pressure, heart rate, and risk of heart attack². 

With climate change, the earth’s temperature is increasing year after year. The researchers in the present study are curious whether this increase in temperature can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease.

How the study was conducted

The present study was conducted in China¹. The researchers collected daily data on cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths between 2007 and 2013, acquiring data from 161 geographical locations in China. 

This data included details on the cause of death (stroke or heart attack), age, sex, and education level.

They also tracked the weather to find the link to death due to increasing global temperature. They collected data on:

1. Daily temperature and humidity data from hundreds of weather stations across China during the same period (2007-2013).
2. Air pollution data: Daily concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at a resolution of 10km x 10km across China (2007-2013).

Finally, scientists prepared a model for future temperature projections. They used 22 climate models to predict future temperature patterns under two scenarios: 

1. With only natural influences and 
2. With both natural and human-induced influences (climate change).

Alarming Predictions: Heat-Related Deaths to Increase Dramatically in China by 2050s

Scientists collected all the necessary data across all 161 locations in China. A team of researchers analysed the collected data wall. Here is what they found:

1. During the study period, the average annual temperature ranged from 12.6°C to 28.4°C. 
2. During this period, 378,025 cardiovascular deaths were reported.
3. The study predicts significant temperature increases across China by 2100 under scenarios considering human-induced climate change. The increases are expected to be highest in the western region. 
4. If only natural factors are considered, there will be little to no increase.
5. Mortality risk increases significantly when temperatures rise above a certain threshold. This association is strongest in southern China. 
6. No significant differences were observed based on age, sex, education level, or cause of death (stroke vs. heart attack).

Vulnerable Populations at Risk: Why the Findings of This Study Are Cause for Concern

The research has surprisingly revealed that if there is no human-induced climate change, taking account of only natural factors, heat-related heart disease deaths are expected to decrease. Here are bullet points of seat-related deaths under different scenarios:

• Under scenarios considering only natural factors, heat-related deaths are expected to decrease slightly over time.
• In contrast, heat-related deaths are expected to increase significantly under human-induced climate change scenarios. This increase is projected to be most dramatic in the latter half of the century (2050s onwards).
• The study estimates that by the 2090s, human-induced climate change could be responsible for over 90% of heat-related cardiovascular deaths in China under a high-emission scenario. This translates to an additional 141,948 deaths per year.

Vulnerable populations: The study found that several groups might be more susceptible to the rise in heat-related deaths due to climate change:

• People living in southern and eastern regions of China
• People living in rural areas
• Elderly people (75+)
• Females

Urgent Need for Action: Mitigating the Health Risks of Climate Change in China

The study found that heat-related deaths will increase significantly if we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions. People with stroke, females, the elderly, and those in rural areas are at higher risk. These findings are concerning because they show that climate change could significantly impact public health in China.

This study highlights the dangers of climate change to human health. Action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate its effects.

At an individual level, what can we do

This study paints a concerning picture of how climate change could significantly increase heat-related cardiovascular deaths in China. The substantial rise in projected deaths underscores the urgency of addressing climate change globally.

While the issue seems overwhelming, there are steps we can take as individuals to protect ourselves. Maintaining good cardiovascular health is crucial. This includes regular exercise, a healthy diet, and managing stress.

• Exercise: Aim for at least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise most days of the week. Studies have revealed that brisk walking can significantly reduce your risk of heart disease. 
• Diet: Avoid unhealthy snacking habits that can contribute to metabolic syndrome, a risk factor for heart disease.
  
• Blood Pressure: If you have high blood pressure, consider isometric exercises that effectively lower blood pressure. .
  

By caring for our cardiovascular health and advocating for climate change solutions, we can work towards a healthier future for ourselves and the planet.

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Sunit. S. Ekka

Dr Sunit Sanjay Ekka is a physiotherapist in practice for the last 15 years. He has done his BPT from one of the premium Central Government physiotherapy colleges, ie, SVNIRTAR. The patient is his best teacher and whatever he gets to learn he loves to share it on his Youtube channel and blog.